AI 是一場生產力革命,而不是崩潰。

25 2 月, 2026    ·    2 min read

每一代人都相信自己發現了那項終將擊垮資本主義的技術: 如今,人們又認為 AI 會引發嚴重的經濟衝擊,以極快速度取代白領工作者,導致需求走弱、市場劇烈震盪。 這種擔憂並非荒謬,但歷史顯示它並不完整。 生產力與繁榮相伴而行 兩百多年來,每一次重大的生產力衝擊都提高了生活水準,而不是摧毀它: 農業曾雇用約 40% 的美國勞動力,如今不到 2%。 製造業就業在 20 世紀中期達到高峰,隨著自動化提升而下降。文書工作在過去四十年也被系統性自動化。 然而: 這個模式再明顯不過: 生產力 ↑ → 成本 ↓ → 購買力 ↑ → 需求 ↑ → 新產業出現 若要主張 … 閱讀全文〈〉

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Macroeconomic Update: I remain significantly more bearish than consensus!

5 10 月, 2023    ·  5 minutes

Of late recessionary talk has cooled off. Jerome Powell and the Fed are no longer expecting a recession. The consensus is for the US to have a soft-landing allowing core … Continue reading “”

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冬天來了!

18 11 月, 2022    ·  2 minutes

我最近一直在宏觀考慮。 在某些時期,宏觀勝過微觀。 在那些時 … 閱讀全文〈冬天來了!〉

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WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture

9 5 月, 2022    ·  2 minutes

I had the pleasure of chatting with Harry Stebbings of 20VC about the current macro environment. In this far ranging conversation we discuss why a recession is the most likely … Continue reading “”

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偉大的未知

11 3 月, 2022    ·  3 minutes

一年前,在 《歡迎來到萬物泡沫》一書中,我指出,前所未有的寬 … 閱讀全文〈偉大的未知〉

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The Moaning 20s

20 4 月, 2021    ·  9 minutes

By Matias Barbero “No more …. masks. Everything open too. School opens this week — Thursday! Did you ever? As if they couldn’t have waited till Monday!” With multiple vaccines … Continue reading “”

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歡迎來到 Everything Bubble!

9 2 月, 2021    ·  2 minutes

市場狂熱的警告信號無處不在。 市盈率居高不下,而且還在攀升。 … 閱讀全文〈歡迎來到 Everything Bubble!〉

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The Impact of COVID19 on startups and the economy

6 5 月, 2020    ·  少於 1 minute

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COVID-19 – 11 Fabrice Grinda – Survivre : le seul KPI du moment

24 4 月, 2020    ·  2 minutes

Discussion sympa avec Matthieu de Generation Do It Yourself sur COVID, l’economie, les startups Pour ce 11ème épisode dédié aux entrepreneurs face à la crise du covid-19 (et deuxième réalisé … Continue reading “”

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The global economy and its impact on startups in the time of COVID-19

20 3 月, 2020    ·  14 minutes

In February I suggested that the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease it causes may be the black swan that push the global economy into recession. I suggested that uncertainty … Continue reading “”

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COVID-19 may be the black swan that pushes the global economy into recession

24 2 月, 2020    ·  4 minutes

If there is one thing that businesses and individuals hate even more than bad news, it’s uncertainty. Even if you scour the literature and CDC releases (such as this latest … Continue reading “”

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Interview in Les Echos (in French): Tech will make the World a Better Place

9 10 月, 2019    ·  5 minutes

Two weeks ago, I had the pleasure of hosting a salon dinner with members of French Founders prior to giving a keynote on the state and future of technology. It … Continue reading “”

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We are lucky to be alive right now!

20 2 月, 2017    ·  少於 1 minute

In these fraught political times, it’s good to take a step back from the day to day minutia. In the grand scheme of things, global quality of life has dramatically … Continue reading “”

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Technology and the Future of Work

11 7 月, 2016    ·  5 minutes

Technological progress continues unabated. The astonishing rate of growth has fueled heated debates about implications on the future of labor and the nature of work. A decade ago, few would … Continue reading “”

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Donald Trump: The Startup Disrupting the GOP Establishment

30 3 月, 2016    ·  3 minutes

by Fabrice Grinda and Mike Lloyd Many people have been amazed at the support that Donald Trump has been able to amass since he threw his red “Make America Great … Continue reading “”

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