AI 是一场生产力革命，而非崩溃。
25 2 月, 2026 · 
2 min read
每一代人都相信自己发现了一项终将打破资本主义的技术： 现在，AI 被认为会引发严重的经济冲击，迅速取代白领工人，导致需求萎缩和市场动荡。 这种担忧并非荒谬，但历史表明这种看法并不全面。 生产力与繁荣并进 200 多年来，每一次重大的生产力冲击都提高了生活水平，而不是破坏了生活水平： 农业曾雇佣了约 40% 的美国劳动力，而今天这一比例不足 2%。 制造业就业人数在 20 世纪中期达到顶峰，并随着自动化的改进而下降。在过去的四十年里，文职工作已被系统地自动化。 然而： 这种模式非常明显： 生产力 ↑ → 成本 ↓ → 购买力 ↑ → 需求 ↑ → 新行业涌现 如果认为 … 继续阅读“”
与杰克-法利的精彩对话，涵盖宏观、加密货币、风险投资等内容！
25 6 月, 2024 · 6 minutes
我喜欢和杰克-法利的谈话。 他是这样总结的。 在正确预测 2 … 继续阅读“与杰克-法利的精彩对话，涵盖宏观、加密货币、风险投资等内容！”
Macroeconomic Update: I remain significantly more bearish than consensus!
5 10 月, 2023 · 5 minutes
Of late recessionary talk has cooled off. Jerome Powell and the Fed are no longer expecting a recession. The consensus is for the US to have a soft-landing allowing core … Continue reading “”
WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture
9 5 月, 2022 · 2 minutes
I had the pleasure of chatting with Harry Stebbings of 20VC about the current macro environment. In this far ranging conversation we discuss why a recession is the most likely … Continue reading “”
The Moaning 20s
20 4 月, 2021 · 9 minutes
By Matias Barbero “No more …. masks. Everything open too. School opens this week — Thursday! Did you ever? As if they couldn’t have waited till Monday!” With multiple vaccines … Continue reading “”
COVID-19 – 11 Fabrice Grinda – Survivre : le seul KPI du moment
24 4 月, 2020 · 2 minutes
Discussion sympa avec Matthieu de Generation Do It Yourself sur COVID, l’economie, les startups Pour ce 11ème épisode dédié aux entrepreneurs face à la crise du covid-19 (et deuxième réalisé … Continue reading “”
The global economy and its impact on startups in the time of COVID-19
20 3 月, 2020 · 14 minutes
In February I suggested that the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease it causes may be the black swan that push the global economy into recession. I suggested that uncertainty … Continue reading “”
COVID-19 may be the black swan that pushes the global economy into recession
24 2 月, 2020 · 4 minutes
If there is one thing that businesses and individuals hate even more than bad news, it’s uncertainty. Even if you scour the literature and CDC releases (such as this latest … Continue reading “”
Interview in Les Echos (in French): Tech will make the World a Better Place
9 10 月, 2019 · 5 minutes
Two weeks ago, I had the pleasure of hosting a salon dinner with members of French Founders prior to giving a keynote on the state and future of technology. It … Continue reading “”
We are lucky to be alive right now!
20 2 月, 2017 · < 1 minute
In these fraught political times, it’s good to take a step back from the day to day minutia. In the grand scheme of things, global quality of life has dramatically … Continue reading “”
Technology and the Future of Work
11 7 月, 2016 · 5 minutes
Technological progress continues unabated. The astonishing rate of growth has fueled heated debates about implications on the future of labor and the nature of work. A decade ago, few would … Continue reading “”
Donald Trump: The Startup Disrupting the GOP Establishment
30 3 月, 2016 · 3 minutes
by Fabrice Grinda and Mike Lloyd Many people have been amazed at the support that Donald Trump has been able to amass since he threw his red “Make America Great … Continue reading “”
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